The Post-Lockout Issues of the National Football League

The Potential Future of the National Football League: 

Expansion, Los Angeles, Realignment and the Playoff Format

            As the NFL Lockout of 2011 appears to draw to an end, it is probably wise for fans and amateur sportswriters like this author to start turning their attention to the next big issues that will likely be facing the league. While it is easy to think that the next big question will be an expansion of the regular season from sixteen to eighteen games, it is almost certain that that question will be resolved in the final terms of the labor dispute’s resolution and probably will be settled in favor of continuing the sixteen game setup out of concern for the players’ long term health.
            With the labor resolution certain to settle those questions, the NFL’s next issues will undoubtedly concern expanding America’s most popular sport and the issues which go along with expanding it. Expansion is easy to frown upon because the last expansion in 2002 seemed to balance out the league in such a way so as to make it perfectly balanced and so much easier to schedule rivalry games, arrange prime time games, structure the playoff seeds and so forth. For these reasons, the league’s current structure does seem to make expansion unnecessary and potentially burdensome.
            The National Football League, however, is also a business and it is common practice for a business which is popular and growing, to expand. In addition, the NFL has potential untapped markets in cities around the United States and possibly Canada which would greatly increase the NFL’s profits and make the league even more profitable for those who work for it. Finally, it seems every year that many NFL teams are forced to release several talented players who never get a chance to develop their talent at the national level because of rosters overloaded with talented players. NFL expansion would allow more of these players to have opportunities to prove themselves at the national level and so also, in a way, expand jobs which would contribute to the turnaround of the American economy. In addition, thanks to Public Law 89-800 which was passed in 1966, the NFL is free from many government regulations which normally would prevent a business as large as the league from expanding. So even though league expansion would cause certain problems, expansion of the league would be better for all involved over the course of the future.
            Any future NFL expansion would, in all likelihood, not be enabled to take full effect for another few years. The history of modern NFL expansion makes that clear. The first expansion of the modern post-merger NFL was planned in the early 1970s, but it was not until April and June 1974 that two new teams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Seattle Seahawks, were formally confirmed as joining the league. It then took another two years before stadiums could be built, coaching staffs hired, rosters assembled and the league realigned to welcome the newcomers into the league. In 1991 the league announced another expansion plan, but this plan was delayed due to league-player disputes until 1993 when the owners voted to welcome the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars into the league. Again it took two years for the teams to assemble what was needed and so Carolina and Jacksonville did not make their appearance until 1995, showing it would take at least two years for any modern NFL expansion franchise to take the field.
            Initially the league had planned to remain at 30 teams following the addition of the Panthers and Jaguars, but certain NFL owners changed that scenario and indirectly led the NFL into the questions it faces today. Between the two expansion seasons of 1976 and 1995, the traditional NFL cities of Baltimore and St Louis lost their respective NFL franchises, the Colts and Cardinals, to Indianapolis and Phoenix. As a result, in 1993 Baltimore and St Louis joined Memphis in putting in bids for one of the two new franchises which would eventually be awarded to Carolina and Jacksonville. Disappointed in their bid, these cities would turn to other avenues to bring the NFL back.

            St Louis would be the first to secure the return of the NFL by persuading the Los Angeles Rams, who had struggled financially all their operational lives, first in Los Angeles and later in nearby Anaheim, that conditions were more favorable for the franchise in St Louis. The Rams would relocate to St Louis in early 1995, which, when coupled with Al Davis’ decision to move the Raiders back to Oakland from Los Angeles that same year, left Los Angeles, one of America’s largest sports markets, devoid of any NFL franchise.

            Baltimore and Memphis would obtain new teams as well but in a slightly more spectacular fashion and it would help lead to further NFL expansion. Baltimore found an owner willing to consider relocation in Cleveland’s Art Modell. Modell, the owner of the venerable Cleveland Browns, announced in late 1995 that the Browns would re-locate to Baltimore, but legal challenges prevented him from retaining the Browns’ name, colors and legacy in Baltimore. Eventually a settlement allowed Modell to move the team, rename it the Baltimore Ravens and list it as an expansion franchise for the 1996 NFL season. In the meantime, another new expansion franchise, listed as the re-activated Cleveland Browns, would begin play in 1999. This, however, would force the league into an uneven number of teams at 31 and necessitated another expansion to even out the conferences and divisions. Then, not long after the Browns moved, Memphis, speaking for the state of Tennessee, managed to lure in the Houston Oilers with a promise of a new stadium in better-equipped Nashville, where they would eventually be renamed the Tennessee Titans. This would leave two legendary professional football cities devoid of any NFL presence and set up the competition for the 32nd franchise of the league, which would be admitted in 2002.

            Following Cleveland’s acquisition of the league’s 31st franchise in 1998, the NFL had informed prospective bidders for the 32nd franchise to be ready with plans for what was needed to return the NFL to their cities. It was made clear at the beginning that the majority of the NFL owners were in favor of Los Angeles receiving the expansion franchise; their attitude changed in early 1999 when NFL representatives learned of a shocking lack of progress and co-operation between several different ownership groups in Los Angeles. As a result, the NFL owners began to encourage Houston’s potential ownership group that if progress was made then Houston would be given a chance to receive the new franchise. When the NFL owners met in late 1999 to decide on who would receive the 32nd franchise, Houston’s plans and efforts clearly impressed the NFL more than Los Angeles’ and the owners voted unanimously to award the franchise to Houston as the Houston Texans. The Texans arrival allowed the league to realign itself as well, placing it into two sixteen team conferences with eight divisions of four teams each and seeming to assure that the league was now properly balanced. However, Los Angeles, which had been the NFL’s second largest market at one time, was still left without a team and that, combined with some up and coming potential NFL markets, has led the NFL to the issues it will have to face after the resolution of the 2011 NFL Lockout.

            The first issue the NFL will likely face in the post-lockout era will be getting Los Angeles back into the league. Commissioner Roger Goodell has stated several times that getting a stadium built in Los Angeles is a top priority for the league and that can only mean that the league will make sure a franchise is located there in the very near-future. At present, Los Angeles has engaged in talks with several franchises about re-locating to the area, including the St Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings. At present all of these teams are either in need of new stadiums (Rams, Raiders, Chargers, 49ers and Vikings) or are dealing with a struggling economy in a small market (Bills and Jaguars). Though Los Angeles has appealed to these franchises in the business and financial sense, the fiascos involving relocation in the 1980s and 90s with Baltimore, St. Louis, Cleveland, Houston and, of course, Los Angeles, has made relocation unlikely due to its potential unpopularity and so makes it more certain that the problem will be solved through another league expansion. However, though league expansion may be the only way to help bring Los Angeles back into the league, it would not mean that relocation would not be involved. On the contrary, given the league’s strong connection to its history, relocation may be a big part of the league’s future plans for Los Angeles, but only where one team is concerned.
            League expansion, though it would be the key to solving the Los Angeles issue, would become an issue of its own that the league would need to address as well. Expansion would need to involve a fairly large and even number of teams in order to avoid the headaches of having unbalanced conferences and divisions which the league endured from 1999 to 2001. The league in its final form will most likely consist of 40 teams, but with the economy in the state it currently is, it is probably wiser for the league to expand only four teams at a time over a course of two to three decades and that would mean the immediate expansion would be only to 36 teams in the next five to ten years. In determining locations for these four new teams, the NFL would have no shortage of suitors, but three cities in particular would stand out as the leaders in the race for these teams.

            1. Los Angeles. In every discussion that has been made concerning the NFL’s return to Los Angeles, the recurring theme is that the league should place two franchises in Los Angeles like the city had from 1982 to 1994 when the Raiders and Rams both played there. It makes good business sense for the NFL, especially considering that the city is the second largest in the United States after New York City; another city with two NFL franchises. Another factor speaking in favor of two franchises in Los Angeles is the competing interests which initially prevented the city from receiving the 32nd franchise in 2002. The competing interests, hearing of a potential NFL return to the area, have already laid out plans for new stadiums in the Los Angeles area and two of the plans have advanced so far that it is hard to see them both not reaching completion.

            The first plan is one put forward by businessman Edward P. Roski, who is a part-owner of Los Angeles’ NBA and NHL franchises, the Lakers and Kings. Roski, drawing heavily on his own personal fortune, has announced plans to develop a stadium in Los Angeles’ City of Industry near Anaheim, which would also clear the way for new entertainment and retail development in the immediate area around the stadium. In 2009, thanks to support from prominent California politicians such as Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Roski was able to persuade the California legislature to pass bills allowing him to build the stadium and so cleared all potential political hurdles to his efforts. Finally, in 2010, he announced his intention to begin building the stadium, which will preliminarily be known as Los Angeles Stadium, as soon as he has found a team which will agree to play there.

            The second plan is one put forward by Anschutz Entertainment Group President Tim Leiweke and a former Arena Football League team owner, Casey Wasserman. Though their plan is more geared towards expanding Los Angeles’ entertainment district, part of it involves building an NFL stadium in downtown Los Angeles and luring a team there. The stadium, which would be built behind the NBA’s Staples Center in downtown Los Angeles, would consist of many more features then Roski’s stadium, such as a retractable roof, and would also have the advantage of already built entertainment and retail in the immediate area surrounding the stadium. However, this stadium would also need at least some financial assistance from the local or state governments while Roski’s stadium is almost entirely privately financed. Finally, in the biggest step in this stadium’s favor, they already have a sponsor as Farmers Insurance Group purchased the naming rights for the stadium in February 2011 thus giving the stadium the name Farmers Field. In June 2011, Leiweke and Wasserman’s proposed stadium was accepted for review by the Los Angeles City Council and while there is no certainty, the general consensus is that the stadium will eventually be approved and negotiations for an NFL team will soon ensue.

            Though the NFL would prefer to see two teams playing out of one stadium in Los Angeles, much the same way the Giants and Jets play out of one stadium in New York, it actually seems unlikely that that will happen. Farmers Field seems to be the leading candidate to be accepted by the NFL at this time, but people familiar with Los Angeles’s expansion fiasco in 2002 remember how Roski assisted in de-railing the hopes of Los Angeles obtaining the 32nd franchise with his own bids for its ownership. Given his track record, it seems unlikely that Roski will shelve Los Angeles Stadium, even if Farmers Field is approved, and will continue his own bid for a franchise. Thus it seems most likely that, despite what the NFL would prefer, Los Angeles’s two franchises will eventually play out of two different stadiums, Roski’s Los Angeles Stadium and Leiweke and Wasserman’s Farmers Field.

            As far as which teams will play in Los Angeles, speculation would likely have the NFL placing two expansion franchises there, but due to certain actions taken by the NFL and its leaders, it appears to be more likely that the NFL will take another approach to resolving the issue. This approach would have the Rams re-locating from St. Louis back to Los Angeles and joining an expansion team in representing the Los Angeles area. For much of the NFL’s history, the Rams were based in the Los Angeles-Anaheim area and still retain a strong fan base there. In addition, many in the NFL would likely be in favor of returning the Rams to their original home in Los Angeles; mainly because of the strong historical roots the Rams developed there over many years as evidenced by the statement of former Rams player and actor Fred Dryer, who stated when the Rams left in 1995: “I hate these people (the Rams ownership) for what they did, taking the Rams logo with them when they moved to St Louis. That logo belonged to Southern California” That, in connection with the league’s strong attachment to its history, evidenced by all the celebrations of the AFL’s 50th Anniversary in 2009 and the infatuation with the NFL-AFL old throwback uniforms, points to the conclusion that the NFL would probably prefer to see the Rams re-locate back to Los Angeles and join an expansion team in representing the area.

            Though it makes sense for the Rams to re-locate back to Los Angeles, a major stumbling block to making this a reality is the fact that current Rams owner Stan Kroenke has stated he does not plan to move the team. Kroenke, a Missouri native, purchased the Rams in 2010 and when he did so, he promised that the Rams would remain in St Louis. However despite Kroenke’s statements, a move still seems possible due to the difficulties the Rams are experiencing with St Louis being a relatively small market compared to some of the others and the fact that their current stadium, the Edward Jones Dome, is old and in need of being replaced, a move St Louis is unable to do currently thanks to the difficult economic situation the city currently finds itself in. With all these things involved, it is a confusing situation, but with all of these factors taken into account, here is an analysis of what will probably end up happening.

            To begin the process, the NFL will approve an expansion plan of adding four more teams to the league within the next six years. One of these expansion franchises will be awarded to Los Angeles and placed in Tim Leiweke and Casey Wasserman’s Farmers Field in downtown Los Angeles. In the meantime, the NFL will help negotiate a three-way deal where Stan Kroenke will sell the Rams to Edward Roski and in return for the sale, Kroenke will receive a promised expansion franchise from the NFL for St Louis. The Rams will re-locate to Roski’s Los Angeles Stadium and once again become the Los Angeles Rams, thus completing the NFL’s return to Los Angeles.

            Is it a far-fetched plan? Maybe, but with all of the factors considered it seems to be the most logical way to settle the issues involving the NFL’s desire/need to return to Los Angeles. This way everyone involved in the process would receive something and the NFL would be able to return a historical team to its historical roots, which has been a priority for the league since the re-location fiascos of the 1980s and 1990s. However, in order for this to work, three more franchises would need to be added to the league along with Los Angeles’s expansion franchise and these three will now be addressed.

            2. St. Louis. This expansion franchise was mentioned briefly in the piece about Los Angeles. In order to return the Rams to Los Angeles, they would need to leave St. Louis and like it or not, the Rams do have a collection of faithful fans in the St Louis area, obtained thanks to their years as the amazing Super Bowl-winning ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ from 1999 to 2004. These fans, probably bringing up old memories of the Cardinals’ move to Arizona, would likely balk at any attempt to move the Rams and leave their city bereft of an NFL presence. An NFL expansion franchise, promised to take over immediately after the Rams re-locate to Los Angeles, would go a long way in appeasing these fans and allowing the Rams to move without any legal trouble from the city of St Louis. In addition, in order to get Stan Kroenke to allow the Rams to be sold and so re-locate back to Los Angeles, he would most likely need to be promised at least the majority share of a new expansion team to be based in St Louis as Kroenke has stated that he himself will not re-locate the Rams as long as he owns them.

            So what will happen here? An analysis based on the factors says this. The NFL will place the second of the four expansion franchises in St Louis to take over as soon as the Rams pack their bags and leave town. As a new franchise, they will be in a better position to bargain with the city of St Louis for a new stadium but will likely begin their history in the Edward Jones Dome until the new stadium is built. Also, probably in homage to the city’s two previous efforts to bring an NFL team to St Louis before the Rams came in 1995, the team will likely be named the St Louis Stallions. The Stallions had twice nearly been admitted to the NFL in the 1990s, once as an almost re-located New England Patriots team in 1993, and once as a proposed expansion franchise in 1995 which lost out to the Jacksonville Jaguars. This would also be in line with the NFL’s determination to remain with its historical roots.
            Again, this proposition is based on many factors which, while they may seem to be far-fetched in certain ways, seem to lead to this conclusion. St Louis wants a football team, but the Rams are needed in Los Angeles. So the proposed St Louis football team, the Stallions, takes the Rams’ place and leaves the NFL with a presence in St Louis while at the same time, returning the NFL to its historical roots.

            3. San Antonio. It does seem unlikely to expect the state of Texas to receive another team, but it is almost certain given the factors involved and San Antonio’s long involved relationship with the NFL. San Antonio was a location for a few NFL pre-season games between 1993 and 2001 before being thrust into the NFL spotlight in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina severely damaged the Louisiana Superdome and forced the New Orleans Saints to re-locate their facilities to San Antonio. For much of 2005 and early 2006, Saints’ owner Tom Benson made media headlines with his statements, personnel moves and apparent negotiations which seemed to indicate that he was ready to re-locate the Saints to San Antonio permanently. Though former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue was eventually able to persuade Benson to return to New Orleans and the Saints’ subsequent success in 2006 and 2009 has made any re-location of that team a moot point, San Antonio is still looked upon as a viable NFL location. Finally, in one of his last actions as NFL commissioner, Tagliabue indicated that San Antonio is on the list of cities which are in line to receive an NFL franchise if the league expands again and current commissioner Roger Goodell has re-affirmed that statement.

            San Antonio has several factors in their favor. For one, the city already has an NFL-ready stadium in the legendary Alamodome. Though NFL analysts have indicated that the Alamodome would need some minor work done to make it a fully-capable NFL facility, the fact still remains that the biggest hurdle to any expansion team is a stadium and San Antonio already has overcome that hurdle. Secondly, one would expect that in a state which already possesses two football teams that there would be opposition from the other franchises to an expansion into their area. Not so said Roger Goodell in a visit to San Antonio in 2008. Rather, Goodell predicted that owners Jerry Jones of the Cowboys and Bob McNair of the Texans would welcome a third NFL franchise in Texas and would support and work for the possibility to become reality. Goodell’s words have subsequently been backed up by Jerry Jones who indicates that he supports San Antonio’s efforts for an NFL franchise of their own.

            With all of these factors in their favor, it appears to be a pretty sure bet that San Antonio will be included in any future league expansion. Finally, it is most probable that when San Antonio receives its expansion franchise it will be named the Oilers, both as a homage to Texas (and in particular San Antonio’s) oil industry and as a homage to the departed Houston Oilers. All that will then be required for the San Antonio Oilers to become a reality is a simple legal settlement with Bud Adams and his Tennessee Titans to make it clear that the San Antonio team is completely different and unrelated to the old Houston Oilers and then San Antonio can join Los Angeles and the new St Louis team in becoming part of the NFL family.

            4. The Fourth Franchise. There is no specific city or geographic location that is a sure bet to receive the fourth NFL franchise, but there are some intriguing possibilities and this section shall sum up the possibilities one by one with their pros and cons.

            1. Toronto, Canada. This seems like a no-brainer in some ways, but there are some concerns involved with the NFL’s first potential expansion into Canada. Toronto, as Canada’s largest city, is home to the only Major League Baseball franchise outside the United States, has a stadium which could be expanded to NFL standards and has a large contingent of NFL fans who would likely welcome a team with open arms. However, there is one large barrier to the NFL’s potential expansion to Toronto and that would be the Buffalo Bills. Due to Buffalo’s small market in their immediate area, Bills’ owner Ralph Wilson decided in 2008 to start actively expanding the Bills’ fan base into the Southern Canada area. The Bills organization has long known that 15-20% of their fans who attend Bills’ games come from Southern Canada and to expand that number, Wilson sought to make it easier for some to attend Bills’ games by playing one regular season home game per year and one pre-season home game every other year for five years in Toronto’s Rogers Centre Stadium. While it is still too early to determine if this plan has worked, Wilson would very likely oppose any attempt to place an NFL franchise inside a fan base he might consider essential to his team’s survival in Buffalo. Given these factors, it is impossible to tell if Toronto would be welcome to an NFL expansion franchise or not.

            2. Omaha, Nebraska. This is a lot more likely then many might admit. Nebraska is a big football state and Omaha’s current United Football League franchise has been a smashing success. The NFL is in a habit of making notes of rival or small league football franchises that do well in certain markets and Omaha’s success has certainly been noted. Naturally the big hurdles of a stadium and local ownership would need to be overcome, but once it is done, do not be surprised if the NFL chooses to place a franchise here.

            3. Salt Lake City, Utah. It seems as if no one is talking about this possibility really, but it is possible. True they would need a new stadium and an owner based in the area, but the market would be rather large for a first-time expansion team. NFL fans in Nevada, Idaho, Utah and Western Montana would finally have a team to root for rather then the distant Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings. Throw in the fierce loyalty of the fans of the NBA’s Utah Jazz and the potential to tap into that fierce loyalty for an NFL team and one can be sure that the NFL will seriously consider this possibility as well.

            4. Portland, Oregon. This is where the list of choices starts getting sketchy. Portland’s NBA and MLS franchises have done well true, but the Seattle Seahawks are not very far away and consider Washington, Oregon and Alaska as part of their fan base. A franchise in Portland would severely cut in to their fan support and the upper northwest is simply not populated enough yet to accommodate another team. Maybe when the second four team expansion takes place in twenty years this will be a more viable option.

            5. Columbus, Ohio. Again it is sketchy. Ohio already has two teams in Cleveland and Cincinnati and a third might be overdoing it. They might pull in more fans from West Virginia then Ohio believe it or not if a franchise is placed in Columbus. So again, while it is possible, it seems unlikely and will probably need to wait until the second four team expansion takes place to even be seriously considered. If it is seriously considered, it would only be to ensure the NFC a presence in an AFC-dominated state and even then that might not be convincing enough to the NFL leadership to place a franchise there.

            6. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The old USFL had a franchise in nearby Tulsa for a year and they did okay as far as attendance and support went. The problem with this location is that Dallas, San Antonio, Houston and Kansas City are rather close by and so a fifth franchise in that area would be drastically cutting into a limited amount of fan support. Still, if the city put together an attractive enough stadium-ownership package, they might persuade the NFL to take a chance on them just as they did with Jacksonville in 1995.

            7. Honolulu, Hawaii. This locale is also more probable then many people would dare to think. Honolulu was one of the five finalists for the two expansion franchises of 1976 and while it was turned down, it still remains a possibility for a future expansion. Like San Antonio and Toronto, Honolulu has the advantage of having an NFL-capable stadium ready in Aloha Stadium where the NFL Pro Bowl has traditionally been held. The drawbacks are that Hawaii is a very long distance from the mainland where the rest of the NFL teams are located, which would be very hard on players in terms of travel, jet lag, and time difference; Also, a team based in Honolulu would very likely extend its fan base to Alaska which has traditionally been regarded as part of Seattle’s fan base and as a result, an attempt to place a team there might raise some objections from the Seahawks’ ownership. Overall though, if a determined ownership group, like the one which landed Jacksonville an NFL franchise in 1995, took Honolulu’s cause and pushed it with Goodell and the NFL owners, the city would have a very good chance of landing the fourth expansion franchise, but the chances of that happening are still pretty long.

            8. Smaller Candidates: Mobile, Alabama (Large city with potential fan base, but possibly a little too close to Dolphins, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Falcons and Saints fan bases, which would likely lead to too many NFL owners opposing an expansion there); Sacramento, California (Yeah it’s a large TV market and California has the largest population of any state in the United States, but even for a state as large as California, a professional sports league can over-do it. The NFL putting another team in there with the two in L.A. and the three already based in the state probably would be over-doing it. Add in the fact that Sacramento’s NBA franchise has struggled with attendance, it makes it even more unlikely); Bowling Green, Kentucky (Like Jacksonville, Florida, this is a huge college town and a professional football franchise would be able to tap into a lot of that college enthusiasm. However, this is a tiny market by NFL standards, which would be a significant drawback. Plus, Nashville, Cincinnati and Indianapolis are very close by and so would take away a lot of potential fan support); Orlando, Florida (Lots of entertainment there yes, but with the Dolphins, Buccaneers, Jaguars and Falcons so close by, it would make financial success at the very least a significant difficulty if not an impossibility); Albuquerque, New Mexico (Like the others, there is potential but it is probably too small a market and too close to NFL powerhouses Dallas, Arizona and Denver to be truly successful); London, Great Britain (If Honolulu will be difficult to sell NFL owners on because of distance and potential wear on players, then London will find it at least as difficult to sell owners on. It probably will be more realistic as a site from which to re-establish a new NFL Europe developmental league); Mexico City, Mexico (Not going to happen. Not unless difficult foreign relations and immigration problems between the United States and Mexico are resolved very quickly and in a way which makes both governments happy);
            Overall the NFL has plenty of markets to potentially expand to and it will be interesting to see how it turns out. However, expansion will also bring about the next issue the NFL will have to face, namely that of league re-alignment. At 32 teams, the NFL is currently divided evenly into two sixteen team conferences with four divisions in each conference and four teams in each division. The balance works out very well and it is one of the reasons many are opposed to another NFL expansion. Four team divisions work very well with thirty-two and forty teams but it is simply not possible with thirty-six, which would mean the league would need to realign itself for the first expansion before reverting to divisions of four teams each when the second expansion takes place.
            So how would the league re-align itself for the period of the league having thirty-six teams? Several people have put forward ideas and scenarios, but there is one plan which seems to make the most logical sense. The plan has the league temporarily realigning into two conferences with twelve divisions of three teams each. Unlike the re-alignment in 2002, no team would switch conferences, but certain divisions would be changed substantially. Here is an outline of what the thirty-six team realignment would probably look like: 

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC East: Washington Redskins, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams

NFC Central: Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, St Louis Stallions

NFC Century: Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, Fourth Expansion Franchise

AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills

AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, San Antonio Oilers

AFC East: New England Patriots, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins

AFC West: San Diego Chargers, Oakland Raiders, Los Angeles expansion team

AFC Central: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans

AFC Century: Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers

            Again, this is only a guess, but based on how the league arranged its realignment in 2002, it is probably the best guess that can be made. It will be difficult to break up some long-standing divisional rivalries, but in all likelihood it would be a temporary breakup until the forty team expansion take place. Once the league expands to forty teams, the league will be able to return to the original format of divisions of four teams each, which will return some of the old divisional rivalries to prominence.

            The final issue which will face the NFL may be the most immediate one as well. For years, many league personnel and fans have advocated an expansion of the playoffs to accommodate teams which finish the season with winning records and yet are prevented from making the playoffs. For example, in 2009, the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons all finished with winning records but were not in the playoffs. Then in 2010, the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Diego Chargers all finished with winning records but also failed to make the playoffs. Expanding the playoffs to accommodate eight teams from each conference would remedy that problem, especially seeing how many teams are left out every year.

            In addition to these arguments for playoff expansion, the more pressing need for it would be directly tied to the league’s expansion. Put simply, twelve playoff spots will not be enough for thirty-six or forty teams. Playoff expansion will become a necessity. The argument might be made that the playoff format will be made too large and complicated and as a result the league will lose a lot of its competitiveness if the playoffs are expanded. While it is true that expansion of the playoff format can be taken too far, a simple expansion to accommodate both the league’s expansion and the ever-growing competitiveness of the league’s teams can still be done.
            Put simply, the NFL playoffs would probably be best expanded in the manner now about to be laid forth. Within a season or two, the NFL should add two teams from each conference to the playoffs and so expand the playoffs from twelve to sixteen teams. The format would be as follows. A new week of NFL playoffs would be added before the Wild Card round and would include four games just like the Wild Card round. This round, which shall be referred to here as the War Card round, would consist of games between the teams which are playoff-seeded five through eight with the five and six seeds hosting. The winners would then advance to the Wild Card round with the three seed hosting the lower seeded of the two War Card round winners. The winners of the Wild Card round would then advance to the Divisional round to meet the one and two seeds with the one seed hosting the lower seeded of the Wild Card round winners. Then the divisional winners would play each other in the conference championship to determine who would represent the conference in the Super Bowl.

            This setup would be good to prepare for the league to expand to 36 teams. For the temporary re-alignment to three-team-divisions, it would allow the two new division champions to host at least one playoff game and the division champions with the worst win-lost record to drop to the war card round which would likely end all the talk of reworking the playoff seeding system. It would, therefore, seem to solve two problems with one solution.

            In the league’s final alignment of forty teams, it would probably be wise to at least consider expanding the playoffs to a wide-open format similar to the one the league adopted in the strike-shortened season of 1982. This format would be set-up by the sixteen team expansion, then expanded to twenty-four teams and slightly modified with the playoff advancement system still being based off the highest seed playing the lowest seed system. There would be eight games total in the War Card round with playoff seeds five through twelve in both conferences battling it out for advancement to the Wild Card round. The winners of the War Card round would meet playoff seeds one through four in the Wild Card round, again with the lowest remaining seed meeting the highest seed. The winners of the Wild Card round would then advance to the Divisional round where the two highest remaining seeds in each conference would host the two remaining seeds. The divisional round winners would then advance to the conference championship games and the winners of the conference championship games would face off in the Super Bowl.

            Twenty-four teams in the playoffs would set up a much more competitive championship battle for a forty team league and would likely draw many more fans. It seems every year that certain teams seem to fire up and play very well at the end of the season. The 2010 Green Bay Packers were a very good example of a team which caught fire at the end of a season and were lucky enough to make the playoffs and win it all in the end. A twenty-four team playoff expansion in a forty team NFL would assure more of those kinds of teams would make the playoffs and so drive up the competitive spirit of the league and attract more sports fans. Finally, it would provide more incentive for teams and players to really work for the Super Bowl as the odds would increase for most teams to at least be in contention for it.

            All of these issues will be settled by the NFL in their own way, but based on an evaluation of all the factors involved, this is very likely how the league will change in the next twenty years. The league will expand to a final alignment of forty teams and will see an expansion of the playoffs and the divisions to accommodate this expansion in the number of teams. It will be a very different NFL at the end of this period, but it will also be even more of a league where competition and parity dominate, giving the fans what they were originally seeking: More competitive meaningful games to watch on our autumn afternoons and evenings.